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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.


Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Inflation ‘A mirror image of the early 1980s’ / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“To propose a return of inflation is to be inflammatory,” writes Lightman Investment Management’s Rob Burnett in an opinion piece for the Financial Times.  “Investors are committed to a deflationary thesis — and such is their fervor that many believe inflation cannot return in any circumstance. Yet if we look beyond today’s demand shock from the Covid-19 crisis, the forces driving the disinflation of the past 40 years appear to be in retreat. … [T]oday appears like a mirror image of the early 1980s. We have moved from inflation peak to deflation trough.”

怎样看懂彩票走势图Evidence is beginning to mount that the new paradigm Burnett describes – moving from disinflation to inflation – might not be too far off the mark. During the financial crisis that began in 2008, the Fed sterilized its money creation by routing money back to its coffers in the form of commercial bank excess reserves – a strategy that kept the inflation rate from running out of control. As you can see in the first chart, the current level of sterilization, at least in the short term, is greater than what occurred in the 2008-2014 period. At the same time, as you can see in the second chart, the rapid growth in the money supply this time around goes beyond anything that occurred during the prior crisis. Whether or not Burnett is correct and the growth in the money supply translates to price inflation down the road remains to be seen. (Please take note that the growth in the money supply began roughly a year ago – well before the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic.)

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Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Argentina, the World’s Biggest Deadbeat Economy / Economics / Argentina

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Steve_H_Hanke

Borrow, spend, default; lather, rinse, repeat.

怎样看懂彩票走势图On May 22, Argentina failed to meet interest payments on its sovereign debt. With that, the country tipped into default on its $65 billion mountain of foreign debt. If that’s not enough, Argentina’s provinces are addicted to debt and are buried in it, too. The province of Buenos Aires is already in default, and Cordoba, La Rioja, Salta, Rio Negro, and Chubut have also indicated that they plan to restructure their debt as well.

This is not the first time that Argentina has stiffed its creditors. No, it’s the ninth time. And it’s not Argentina’s largest default, either. Indeed, Argentina set the world’s default record when it defaulted on $95 billion in external debt in 2001. The bottom line is clear: Argentina is hands down the world’s biggest deadbeat.

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Thursday, June 04, 2020

East Asia Will Be a Post-Pandemic Success / Economics / Asian Economies

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: The_Gold_Report

In conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, Jayant Bhandari of Capitalism and Morality offers his take on what the post-COVID-19 world will look like.

Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Jayant Bhandari, the founder of Capitalism & Morality, and a highly sought-out advisor to institutional investors.

Jayant, there are a lot of mixed, contentious emotions regarding COVID-19. Irrespective of one's position, it's incumbent for us all to prepare for how the world will function going forward. Let's discover which parts of the world, and how readers may thrive in a post coronavirus world.

怎样看懂彩票走势图Sir, you recently wrote a musing entitled "What the Post Coronavirus World Looks Like." In this piece, you outlined a number of distinctions that may create a great divide between East Asia, the West and Third World countries. From a 30,000-foot perspective, who do you see coming out as the winners, when and if the world returns to some aspect of normalcy, and why?

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Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large / Economics / Deflation


怎样看懂彩票走势图The U.S. faces the prospect of a Japan-like deflation.

怎样看懂彩票走势图Let's begin with a brief review of Japan.

Here's a chart and commentary from the 2020 edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash:

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Thursday, May 28, 2020

Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

怎样看懂彩票走势图We find it interesting how researchers attempt to compare history, sometimes ancient history, to the applicable functions of today’s world and to attempt to translate the decline of empires in the past to what is happening in today’s world.  Ray Dalio appears to be suggesting the rise of the Chinese economy and economic capabilities is going to threaten to unseat the US as a world super-power.

Within , he suggests the following which seems to sum up his cycle theory:

“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war. Out of these debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”

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Friday, May 22, 2020

China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the coronavirus fallout is spreading in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires global cooperation, however.     

Today, international interest in the annual Two Sessions of China’s top legislative and political advisory bodies - National People’s Congress, and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – which starts on Thursday, is exceptionally high.

Due to the global pandemic, the Sessions take place under strong anti-epidemic measures, including social distancing, and will be significantly shorter and rely more on videoconferences. Such measures are in line with the science-based health policies, which the central government adopted in late January.

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Sunday, May 17, 2020

The Great Economy Reopening Gamble / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

怎样看懂彩票走势图We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”

怎样看懂彩票走势图Kashkari is right; this won’t get better while so much of the economy is sidelined. The stay-at-home orders, while they help reduce coronavirus spread, have other side effects, too. Domestic violence increases, children miss educational opportunities, people with other health conditions go untreated. These are real problems.

The question is how to reopen怎样看懂彩票走势图 without making the situation worse. Kashkari had some advice on that, too: “To solve the economy, we must solve the virus.”

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Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

怎样看懂彩票走势图The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.

The pressures on both sides are huge.

On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.

怎样看懂彩票走势图On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.

怎样看懂彩票走势图Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2020

US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: James_Quinn

“At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

怎样看懂彩票走势图I’ve been writing articles about the Fourth Turning for over a decade and nothing has happened since its tumultuous onset in 2008, with the global financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve and their Wall Street co-conspirator owners, that has not followed along the path described by Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book – The Fourth Turning.

Like molten lava bursting forth from a long dormant (80 years) volcano, the core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to flow along channels of distress, long ago built by bad decisions, corrupt politicians and the greed of bankers. The molten ingredients of this Crisis have been the central drivers since 2008 and this second major eruption is flowing along the same route. The core elements are debt, civic decay, and global disorder, just as Strauss & Howe anticipated over two decades ago.

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Monday, May 11, 2020

Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Frank_Holmes

怎样看懂彩票走势图While the broader markets have seen sharp declines, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, homes in on gold, gold stocks and bitcoin, and gives his prognosis for the airlines.

Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?

Frank Holmes:怎样看懂彩票走势图 There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.

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Sunday, May 10, 2020

US ­Rates Eye Negative Territory as Capital Prepares for Slow Death / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets appear to be gearing up for another leg higher. On Thursday, the metals complex rose sharply across the board. Gold gained about 2.5% while silver packed on nearly 4%.

Both of the monetary metals showed signs of breaking out of the sideways trading ranges they’ve been stuck in over the past four weeks. Silver closed solidly above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February.

怎样看懂彩票走势图Bulls will be looking for confirmation with strong weekly closes today and then follow-through early next week.

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Friday, May 08, 2020

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Patrick_Watson

怎样看懂彩票走势图Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

怎样看懂彩票走势图In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.

怎样看懂彩票走势图At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out. 

怎样看懂彩票走势图But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.

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Thursday, May 07, 2020

Covid-19: Major Risks as US Eyes Re-Open / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dr_David_J_Harris


This article provides a quick review of the current state of the US lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Major risks lie ahead in terms of re-starting the US economy without re-igniting the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus.

  • Current number of active cases is 50x the number when US lock-down started
  • Peak number of US active cases still not yet reached, and likely weeks away
  • Peak number of deaths for US in a day, observed relatively recently
  • Model projections are predicting at least 100,000 US deaths by May 31
  • Contact tracing in today’s complex society is a major problem to overcome
  • The US is now in a recession that could last at least 12 to 18 months
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Wednesday, May 06, 2020

A Tale of Two Economic Depressions / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Richard_Mills

As the coronavirus continues to hammer state and provincial economies, politicians are being forced to consider whether lockdown “cures” are worse than the disease. Pressured by the Trump administration, and in some cases the public, several US states are planning a re-opening, or partial re-opening of their economies, sometime in May. 

怎样看懂彩票走势图About half of Canadian provinces and territories are also in the midst of a re-start of some description; among those still locked down are British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/ Labrador. 

The question weighing on the minds of both health officials and economists, is whether letting up on social distancing restrictions will cause the number of covid-19 cases to spike, thereby setting back virus containment efforts and the timeline of economic recovery. Yet regardless of what comes next, it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see we are already in a heap of trouble. 

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Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Why Americans Don't Have Any Savings / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

In response to a likely worldwide recession, governments have turned on full blast the fiscal and monetary spigots. A $2 trillion spending plan has just been approved in the USA, central banks are on a buying spree, and the $1200 stimulus payment is just helicopter money. Since the government does not have a magical tree of plenty and can only redistribute from the left pocket to the right by , how does this make any economic sense or make any country better off? Government and Keynesian economists will tell you it’s to protect us from the coming dangers of hoarding; specifically, that banks will stop lending and just let funds sit. Keynes brought hoarding to the forefront of economics in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money怎样看懂彩票走势图; a concept that the classical economist considered to be irrelevant.

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Monday, May 04, 2020

US Q1 GDP Data Masking The True Global Economic Future? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday, April 29, which will reflect the first three months of 2020 in terms of total economic output, we believe the number will skew the current true global economic conditions to a large degree.  The pandemic shutdowns started in the US on March 15th – nearly 2 weeks before the end of Q1:2020.  Thus, we had a fairly normal Q1 in terms of economic activity, production, and consumer engagement. Everything changed after March 15th, 2020.

Skilled traders need to watch the current economic data and “week over week” data that is presented.  Skilled traders also need to pay attention to the news items that are being pushed out to the public.  Larger and larger corporations and sectors are moving towards bankruptcy or screaming for a bailout. Airlines, Hotels, Car Rental, and dozens of other sectors have all collapsed over the past 5+ weeks.  We as well.  The results of the last 5+ weeks, after the March 15th shutdown started, have been anything but normal.

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Sunday, May 03, 2020

No, the Economy Isn’t Re-Opening Soon / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Patrick_Watson

怎样看懂彩票走势图 “America will be open for business very soon,” said President Trump on March 23, just a week after local authorities began issuing stay-at-home orders.

At that point, the novel coronavirus had killed a total of 689 Americans. Now, a little over a month later, 689 deaths would be a really good day. And America still isn’t open for business. But the president and some governors think it should be and are trying to make it so.

Unfortunately, politicians can’t order the economy open again because they didn’t close it. Consumers and businesses began shutting down long before they were forced to, and they won’t re-open just because they legally can.

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Thursday, April 30, 2020

The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Nadeem_Walayat

It looks like the history books will need to be rewritten for if the noises emanating out of every nick and economic cranny are to be believed for the global economy is heading for an economic contraction WORSE than that of the Great Depression! Which will make the Financial Crisis of 2008 look like a walk in the park. And this is not from the usual perma doom merchants who like a broken clock will eventually be right.

However, even the UK governments Office for State Economic Propaganda (OBR) has warned to expect UK GDP to plunge by an unprecedented 35% in Q2!

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Saturday, April 25, 2020

Deflationary Psychology Versus the Fed: Here’s the Likely Winner / Economics / Deflation


Weeks before the February top in the DJIA, the January Elliott Wave Theorist怎样看懂彩票走势图 (Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter's monthly publication about financial markets and social trends since 1979) said:

Most economists believe the Fed can prevent financial crises and depressions. [EWI's analysts] disagree. Socionomic theory proposes that naturally fluctuating waves of social mood regulate financial optimism and the economy. They are unconscious and cannot be managed怎样看懂彩票走势图. [emphasis added]

怎样看懂彩票走势图In case you're unfamiliar with socionomic theory, socionomics is the study of how society's changes in mood motivate social actions in realms that include the economy, political preferences, financial markets, actions of peace and war, and the fads and fashions of popular culture. Robert Prechter began formulating socionomic theory in 1976.

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Wednesday, April 22, 2020

The Coming Impact of Coronavirus Economic Contraction in ASEAN Countries / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

怎样看懂彩票走势图By: Dan_Steinbock

After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.

As the total number of confirmed cases may exceed 3 million and deaths will surpass 200,000 in a matter of days, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 80% % of both. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, thanks to the belated mobilizations in Europe and the US.

怎样看懂彩票走势图As I predicted in a mid-March briefing (TMT, March 23), what is about to follow is the great coronavirus contraction. Its economic impact will be comparable to the 1930s Great Depression. With more data available today, we have a better idea what’s about to happen, despite extraordinary uncertainty.

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