怎样看懂彩票走势图


Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Great Economy Reopening Gamble

Economics / Coronavirus Depression May 17, 2020 - 01:35 PM GMT

By: Patrick_Watson

Economics

We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”

Kashkari is right; this won’t get better while so much of the economy is sidelined. The stay-at-home orders, while they help reduce coronavirus spread, have other side effects, too. Domestic violence increases, children miss educational opportunities, people with other health conditions go untreated. These are real problems.

The question is how to reopen without making the situation worse. Kashkari had some advice on that, too: “To solve the economy, we must solve the virus.”


Unfortunately, it’s not happening. Which means we are making a massive bet against the odds.

Serious Problem

Let’s start by correcting some misinformation: COVID-19 is not “just the flu.”

Yes, most who get it seem to show only mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. Similarly, most people who get in cars don’t have fatal accidents. But you probably don’t drive 100 mph down narrow streets without a seat belt. You modify your behavior to reduce the risk.

怎样看懂彩票走势图So, what’s the risk?

Well, the worst recent flu season was 2017–18, when the US had an estimated 61,000 flu-related deaths. And that was over an entire year. COVID-19 has killed 80,000 in just two months.

“Ah, but they were mostly old people,” you say. “I’m safe.”

怎样看懂彩票走势图No, you’re not.

Here’s a  comparing risk of death by age group of the 2018 flu season vs. three possible COVID-19 scenarios.  

Let me explain this. Look at the number I circled in red. “1.57” means that in the optimistic scenario, for people age 25-34, the risk of being one of 100,000 COVID-19 deaths is 1.57 times higher than the risk of dying from the flu if this flu season is as bad as 2017-2018. And it gets worse from there.

Bloomberg made similar calculations for auto accidents, drowning, etc. The results are consistent. If you are over age 40 or so, COVID-19 is significantly deadlier than anything else you will likely encounter this year. The odds are getting worse, not better.

The economy can’t recover if that is the case, and it will be the case if the virus is actively spreading. We need a plan to fix this.

Turns out, we have a plan… or at least, we did. 

Abandoned Plan

怎样看懂彩票走势图Let’s review some ancient history—as in “four weeks ago.”

On April 16, the White House released a set of guidelines called . It advised governors how to gradually reopen their states while fighting the coronavirus.

怎样看懂彩票走势图The plan begins with a set of “gating criteria.” The key one: a “downward trajectory” of documented COVID-19 cases within a 14-day period. The plan recommends relaxing restrictions in phases with each such period of improvement.


Image: The White House

怎样看懂彩票走势图Those who  know I’ve been very critical of the Trump administration’s handling of this crisis. But I thought this plan was sensible. Similar methods seemed to be working elsewhere, so it gave me some much-needed hope.

My hope didn’t last because, within days, governors whose states were nowhere near meeting the criteria announced plans to start reopening anyway.

Note, the White House hasn’t withdrawn its recommendations. It’s still the official advice, even though many governors are doing things differently.  

Stranger still, the president has been inviting those governors to the White House to congratulate them. It’s like he is saying, “Here are my recommendations and I’m glad you are ignoring them.”

怎样看懂彩票走势图Why publish a plan and then act like it never existed? The only way this makes sense is if Trump and these governors have decided reopening businesses is more important than reducing virus deaths, but they don’t want to say so publicly.   

That’s a big gamble. They could lose both ways.

No Good Outcomes

Gamblers need to know all the possible outcomes. In this case, we can simplify the next few months to two variables.

  • The economy will either get better or not.
  • The coronavirus will either spread or recede.

That means we have four paths, as shown in this matrix.

怎样看懂彩票走势图Let’s look at each:

  1. If the virus recedes soon and the economy gets back on its feet, then we’ll be essentially back to 2019. That was better than where we are now, but hardly great. The economy was growing slowly and maybe approaching recession, with stocks overpriced and the financial system wobbly.
  1. If the virus recedes but the economy doesn’t improve, then we will pay for all this with a severe recession. Millions will stay unemployed and many businesses go bankrupt.
  1. If the virus keeps spreading but relaxing the lockdowns helps the economy, the mortuary and funeral industry will be hiring as it expands rapidly. This burial boom would be an opportunity for jobless restaurant workers and maybe others, too.
  1. Finally, if the virus keeps spreading and the economy doesn’t recover, we will face a major national disaster: economic depression concurrent with mass sickness and death.

You can debate what the odds are for each scenario. None lead anywhere good. One is unbelievably bad. So, it makes sense to do all we can to avoid that one.

Are we? We’ll know in a few weeks.

The Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History

 New York Times best-seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could trigger in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now. 

By Patrick_Watson

© 2020 Copyright Patrick_Watson - All Rights Reserved

怎样看懂彩票走势图Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://ijr65qh.cn - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

手机棋牌输了几百万 怎么样进入赌单双软件 怎么购买手机赌博软件 我爱彩票邀请码是多少 手机新澳门棋牌官网 快钱彩票官网 快乐棋牌游戏 手机版彩票过滤工具 怎么下载波克棋牌 我想查查彩票开奖结果