怎样看懂彩票走势图


Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America

Economics / Coronavirus Depression May 08, 2020 - 11:03 PM GMT

By: Patrick_Watson

Economics

Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.

In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.

At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out. 

But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.


What any of us think matters less than what the virus does. This “normal” everyone wants to see is an economy unmolested by this virus.

Will it just go away? Let’s see what experts think.

Three Scenarios

The economic outlook is cloudy right now because it isn’t entirely economic. It’s also medical and sociological. The economy’s course depends on how this virus behaves, and how people behave in response.

怎样看懂彩票走势图A  last week from the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) outlined three scenarios this pandemic could follow.

Scenario 1怎样看懂彩票走势图, which they call “Peaks and Valleys,” says this first wave will recede, but will be followed by similar waves every few months for the next year or two. Their severity will vary somewhat, but they will keep happening.

Economically, this is the middle-ground outlook. We’ll still have a recession, and the recurring outbreaks would delay recovery. After a lot of pain, people and businesses would adapt.

Scenario 2, the “Fall Peak,” says that what we just saw in March and April was the prelude to a larger wave this fall or winter. That’s what happened in the 1918 flu epidemic. Smaller third and fourth waves would probably follow in 2021.

怎样看懂彩票走势图That scenario could be an economic knock-out blow. Faced with a national breakdown of the healthcare system, authorities would likely impose far more severe and lengthy lockdowns than the US has seen so far. Businesses that were just getting back on their feet would close permanently. The government, having already spent trillions, might not be able to offer more stimulus.

Scenario 3, the “Slow Burn,” would see the virus keep spreading, but slowly enough for the healthcare system to handle. Further lockdowns would be unnecessary.

怎样看懂彩票走势图This is the economic best-case. It would mean the worst is behind us and the recovery will proceed. This is what many investors seem to be betting on.


Chart: 

The CIDRAP team believes that in any of these scenarios, we should be prepared for at least another 18–24 months of significant COVID-19 activity. That’s how long it will take to either develop and deploy an effective vaccine, or for the population to develop “herd immunity.”

Wishful Thinking

怎样看懂彩票走势图With even the best-case scenarios looking dark, why are so many investors and businesspeople so sure the worst is over?

I think some of it is denial or “wishful thinking.” They don’t want it to be true and so convince themselves it is not. They expect to find a four-leaf clover that solves everything.

But I think the main problem is they don’t understand how hard this has hit the service part of the economy, and how difficult recovery will be.

Today’s investors love businesses that “scale.” A website like Facebook, for instance, can double its revenue without doubling expenses.

Not so for restaurants. One chef can’t make an infinite number of meals. And now, with different rules and customer expectations, they have to reengineer everything. It will take time and money. Meanwhile, unemployment will remain high and consumer spending will suffer.

怎样看懂彩票走势图And don’t forget, large events and conventions are probably off the table for months. The impact on the hotel, air travel, and entertainment industries alone would trigger a harsh recession.

怎样看懂彩票走势图But that’s not the scariest part.

Feeling Lucky?

If governors keep relaxing the restrictions this month, most of the US will have spent six to eight weeks offline or in some kind of lockdown situation.

That seems like a long time. But Wuhan, China, where the outbreak originated, had to stay in a far more restrictive lockdown for 10 weeks. Ditto for hard-hit parts of Italy and Spain.

怎样看懂彩票走势图In the US, new cases seem to have stabilized to around 30,000 daily. The number is not shrinking nationally. It’s not shrinking in places like Georgia and Texas that are beginning to re-open. As more people resume contact in public spaces, even more infections seem likely.

怎样看懂彩票走势图It is true that lockdowns can’t go on indefinitely. People have limits. The isolation causes other problems and even deaths. But, as I explained last week, the . This urgency to re-open businesses before customers are ready is odd.

Our leaders seem to presume the virus will behave differently in the US than it did elsewhere, and we don’t need to do what other countries did.

怎样看懂彩票走势图If that presumption proves false, then the “Fall Peak” scenario is a real possibility.

In March and April, millions of Americans lost their jobs and 63,856 lost their lives. It’s been awful. And it may have been a dress rehearsal for worse in November/December.

The Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History

怎样看懂彩票走势图 New York Times best-seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could trigger in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now. 

By Patrick_Watson

© 2020 Copyright Patrick_Watson - All Rights Reserved

怎样看懂彩票走势图Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://ijr65qh.cn - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily 怎样看懂彩票走势图Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

手机棋牌输了几百万 怎么样进入赌单双软件 怎么购买手机赌博软件 我爱彩票邀请码是多少 手机新澳门棋牌官网 快钱彩票官网 快乐棋牌游戏 手机版彩票过滤工具 怎么下载波克棋牌 我想查查彩票开奖结果